Scarcity: how many bottles survive, and why that sets the price

The consumption curve

Nobody counts the bottles drunk, but the trade's rule of thumb — and the one Corkonomics' scarcity score uses — is a few percent a year through a wine's drinking window, slowing as the survivors move into collectors' cellars. After thirty years, perhaps a fifth to a third of a Bordeaux vintage survives; after fifty, far less.

Format and provenance

Large formats are rarer per bottle-equivalent and age more slowly; magnums and larger carry a scarcity premium the score recognises. Provenance thins the supply further: of the surviving bottles, only some have a history the market will pay for.

What the score does

Corkonomics' scarcity score starts from estimated production, applies the consumption curve by age, adjusts for format, for how often the wine appears at auction (a wine never seen is scarcer than the count suggests) and for the producer's standing (a scarce wine nobody wants is not scarce in the market sense). The method is published on the methodology page; the score is a description, not a recommendation.