The Bordeaux cycle, 2005–2025

2005–2011: the boom

Hong Kong abolished wine duty in 2008 and became the hub for mainland Chinese demand, which concentrated on Lafite above all. The 2009 and 2010 vintages, both rated among the greatest, were released at prices far above any predecessor; trade indices for the first growths roughly tripled between 2005 and mid-2011.

2011–2015: the fall

Prices of the 2009 and 2010 fell for four years — by around half for Lafite in trade reporting — as Chinese demand cooled, anti-corruption campaigns curtailed gift-giving, and buyers noticed that older vintages were cheaper than the new releases. The drawdown is the reference case for what happens when a release price sits above the market.

2016–2022: recovery and dilution

Bordeaux recovered with the market but lost share: Burgundy, Champagne, Italy and California took a growing part of secondary-market value. Estates responded by releasing 2019 at prices below the 2018 (into the pandemic) — the campaign that sold — and then raising again.

2023–2025: the campaigns nobody bought

The 2022 (a great vintage) was released at high prices into rising interest rates; the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, cut in price but not enough, were widely described by merchants as the weakest in a generation. The lesson the trade drew: en primeur works only when the release price is below the trading level of comparable older vintages, and for several years it was not.